Probability of a Successful Transplant
Kidney transplants are not always successful despite the careful matching and testing done before a transplant. One concern is the mortality rate, or the chance of dying, from the surgery itself or the anesthesia. The probability of death for a cadaver kidney transplant recipient at the University of Texas Medical Branch is less than 5% and is less for the living donor recipient. This is the same as at other major transplant centers. Most of the transplant related deaths occur in people who are over the age of 55 or who have some other complicating medical factor, such as heart disease or diabetes.
Another concern is whether or not the transplant will work. Experience has shown that a living donor kidney will probably be functioning two years after the time of transplant 95% of the time. The chance of a cadaver transplant continuing to work one year after the transplant is about 85%, and 50% at five years.
However, both living donor and cadaver transplants can function for many more years. Loss of function occurs most often during the first two years. Therefore, a transplanted kidney that is working well two years after a transplant is more likely to continue to function for long periods of time. Research is continually under way to improve the transplant success rate.
