Introduction

Scenario Matrix

Email Age Scenario

Implications

Institutional Strategies

Supporting Tactics

Guideposts

Assessment Current - April 2002

Guidepost Assessment - March 2002

Express Mail Age Scenario

U.S. Mail Age Scenario

Pony Express Age Scenario

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The Email Age Scenario

Imagine a world in which the functions of academic medical centers are provided in a “virtual” environment.  The age of technology has become so pervasive that all aspects of daily life, including health care, are significantly impacted.  The three traditional roles of health science centers, namely teaching, research, and patient care have adapted state-of-the-art technology to their needs.  The consumer of their services has demanded major changes in traditional (read that old fashioned) methods of service.

Consumers have challenged and successfully eliminated roadblocks to their demands, including government regulation.  A single payer program with patient choice as a key feature has been developed.  Employees are given a voucher for a fixed amount to be used for healthcare and can get that care anywhere they choose. An active lobbying effort has mandated responsiveness.  Legislation has been enacted to support patients’ needs.

Research-oriented and opinionated students, granting agencies, patients, and employers have demanded high quality, value laden services in a low-overhead, cost-effective manner.  The availability of ubiquitous complete access, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with privacy and security safeguards and high speed communication systems, pervades all aspects of our lives, from “virtual” commerce on a global scale to “virtual” health care.  This has fostered a new form of competition providing a large variety of choices to the consumer.  The sophisticated patient, armed with information obtained from the World Wide Web, will “shop” for the best care at the best price.

Opportunities to market services are no longer bound by geography.  Worldwide customers are available to providers.  But competitive factors demand constant attention in order to avoid loss of market share.  Strong interaction and close communication between consumer and provider are necessary for success.  Heavy technical demands require a technically skilled workforce.  “High tech” orientation towards customers is essential.  Niche markets need to be continuously identified and developed.  Flexibility in service lines is essential, and the ability to modify approaches to customers in order to fulfill their needs and desires is constantly required.

Partnerships and consortia development have resulted in multi-disciplinary, proprietary-oriented research without boundaries, driven by societal interest rather than government regulations.  Technical transfer of basic research to commercial markets is commonplace.

The same principles apply to teaching, which has taken the form of “borderless” classrooms with “just-in-time” classes, designer courses and “virtual” degree programs.  “Virtual” degree programs have become equal in rights and privileges, as well as quality, to traditional programs.

Since the majority of patient care and teaching activities is “virtual,” generally at consumers’ homes and at their convenience, health services must accommodate them.  Twenty-four-hour comprehensive health care coverage, independent of location, will be routine.  The patient’s care provider will be available regardless of whether the patient is at home, work or traveling. Primary care providers will need training and experience in areas such as occupational medicine, workman’s compensation, public health, travel medicine and knowledge of other cultures’ medical practices and pharmaceuticals. Advances in robotics will allow for distance procedures and even distance surgery.  This is particularly different from current health care delivery, so the traditional provider must adapt.  Home visits to supplement telemedicine, rather than requiring patients to come to centralized facilities, will be expected.  The health science center campus will change in its mission to include the necessary infrastructure to support the advanced technology. Only procedure-oriented services will take place in these facilities.  Creative and innovative “virtual” methods of providing care must be continuously refined so that low cost, quality care is maintained.

The new paradigm of healthcare is defined by the following:

  • Telemedicine care is widely available and accepted by patients and providers alike

  • Provider assisted telemedicine includes physician assistants and nurse practitioners

  • Home visits complement "virtual" consultations

  • Expert providers are available regardless of home site

  • Visits to providers are significantly reduced

  • Loss of direct interaction is more than offset by convenience and ease of access

  • The mobility afforded by telemedicine technology for both patient and provider produces new work environments

  • Privacy and security of patient information is assured

  • Technology has provided user-friendly equipment, peripherals are easy to use and easily monitored

  • New relationships between healthcare providers and first responders who may not be medically trained

  • High quality, accurate educational material is available

  • Full range of patient services are available including:

    • EKG monitoring

    • Blood sugar monitoring

    • Pacemaker testing

    • Vital sign monitoring

    • Vital signs measurements

    • Otoscope

    • Stethoscope

    • Emergency notification (panic button)

    • Fetal monitoring

    • Mobile laboratory and x-ray capability

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