Introduction

Scenario Matrix

Email Age Scenario

Implications

Institutional Strategies

Supporting Tactics

Guideposts

Assessment Current - April 2002

Guidepost Assessment - March 2002

Express Mail Age Scenario

U.S. Mail Age Scenario

Pony Express Age Scenario

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The Express Mail Age Scenario

Large business organizations have become the mainstay of the U.S. economy.  Their influence has led to a strong government that has imposed greater restrictions and regulations on commerce and technology.  Business leaders set the tone for the marketplace, and the average consumer accepts products as they are developed.  Consumers have become accustomed to average quality and are unlikely to complain if services or products are poor, especially if they are able to acquire these services and products at lower prices.  Consumers use the technology that is available to them, but make choices based upon what is presented rather than proactive choices.  Convenience and cost are more important than quality.  Manufacturers invest 50% of their marketing budgets in direct consumer marketing, inducing consumer demand and boosting sales.  Technological development continues, and successful corporations implement massive campaigns to reach consumers.  Special interest groups and coalitions influence political changes. Innovations in products and services, including the health care industry, are generated by business, not consumers.

Consumers seek local health care and prefer provider groups that can offer some convenience along with personalized care.  Technology is also utilized throughout each health care system to gain efficiency and to improve collaboration between entities; i.e. where markets are either shared to prevent encroachment by third parties or where no threat exists to either entity’s market.  As consumers utilize the technology for highly sub-specialized care, large telemedicine programs continue to operate.  As consumers focus on convenient and cost-effective health care, less emphasis is placed on quality.  Effective hospital systems bring their products directly to the consumer and provide a high- tech brand of care with little need for the consumer to make choices.  These systems provide a range of services covering all sub-specialties and age related health care needs.  A large portion of the organization’s budget is dedicated to active recruitment of patients and the prevention of competition from other entities.  Each successful health care organization employs individuals whose primary responsibility is to follow up with patients to assure that they continue to return to the same organization for care.  Costs of health care delivery are decreased by the development and deployment of health maintenance programs through technologies accepted by the general population.  The UT health care components use technology to collaborate in delivering patient care to publicly funded, insured populations and to prevent intrusion of private health care organizations.

In an attempt to reach as many students as possible, The University of Texas System has utilized technology in forging new relationships with various community colleges throughout the state. Technology is used in support of education, particularly in program offerings, course development, and in decreasing the student/faculty ratio.  Students prefer to utilize developed technological programs, whether from their homes or from their local schools, which duplicates educational efforts in many areas. This duplication increases the cost of higher education, as consumers are unwilling to attend programs that are not convenient, and challenges educational institutions to find ways of reaching students at a lower cost.

Large advertising programs are launched by institutions of higher education, which dedicate funds to assure the necessary number of students in each program.  Classes and programs are developed with the principles of educational soundness coupled with convenience, cost effectiveness, and technology.  Students are able to find entire programs on the Web and through weekend or evening programs.

To staff the growing educational programs, part-time faculties are hired at rates exceeding full-time faculty.  Faculty are driven by increasing challenges in meeting the demands of students in today's high-tech environment.

Research programs continue to grow; however, the money provided by the federal government is both targeted and decreased. Private businesses, including drug companies, are becoming major funders because of shifts in federal government funding. Researchers are encouraged to react to existing problems and questions, leaving minimal opportunities for new discoveries.  Major universities collaborate, using technology, to support highly focused research projects.

Legislative:

  • Legislative activities help to make decisions for consumers

  • The largest number of voting consumers drive the direction for legislators

  • National licensure of providers vs. interstate agreements allows distance care

  • Privacy is not protected

  • Payer systems developed emphasize attitudes of entitlement

  • Business interests will drive legislative decisions

Technical:

  • Two-way, high quality, live interactive video communication

  • High band width interactive communication of voice, data and video

  • Convenient, user-friendly technology accepted in homes and schools

  • High trust among consumers that information will not be misused

  • Corporations extend technology into homes to market their services and products

Education:

  • Technology is integrated throughout educational programs

  • Students seek access to education in convenient locations, including home

  • Schools expand curriculum and faculty via technology

  • Schools compete for local markets

  • Duplication among educational programs is not discouraged

  • Higher education utilizes technology to decrease costs of faculty time

  • Collaborative relationships exist between community colleges and universities

Research:

  • Federal funding for research is targeted to specific diseases

  • Multiple business ventures form collaborations with universities for development of research projects

  • Direction of research programs becomes increasingly problem (business/product) oriented

 

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