Introduction

Scenario Matrix

Email Age Scenario

Implications

Institutional Strategies

Supporting Tactics

Guideposts

Assessment - April 2002

Assessment - April 2002 Appendix A Guidepost Assessment

Assessment - May 2004

Express Mail Age Scenario

U.S. Mail Age Scenario

Pony Express Age Scenario

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Introduction

The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) implemented a strategic planning process in 1982 in accordance with rules established by The University of Texas System Board of Regents.  Strategic plans have been reviewed and updated on a biennial basis and have documented the Medical Branch's direction for the future.

UTMB has continued to refine its planning process, improving data collection, analysis, communication, goal setting, budgeting, and performance monitoring.  In 1998, an institutional process was initiated to clarify UTMB’s core purpose and fundamental values and provide the foundation for strategic planning and decision-making.  An institutional vision defined by four priorities and related goals were developed to guide the institution into the 21st century. In 1999 UTMB initiated a broad based, iterative scenario planning process to further embellish our strategic planning process.  Scenarios are plausible views of the future environment the institution may find itself having to face.  Multiple scenarios and the strategies that support them improve organizational flexibility and decision making in addressing the uncertainties of the future.

A task force, comprised of faculty, administrators, and technologists from across the institution, performed an environmental scan of the key trends and driving forces that were likely to have a significant impact on Academic Medical Centers during the period 2002 – 2007. Critical uncertainties over which the institution has little control were also cataloged and analyzed. The key uncertainties included regulation and legislation, consumerism, product differentiation, organization, competition, economic conditions, medical reimbursement, and technology. The product of the task force’s work was the identification of four alternate views (scenarios) of the future environment the institution may face. The task force reached consensus that the E-Mail Age scenario was the most plausible of the four scenarios.

The President’s Council endorsed the task force’s work and identified a set of key implications to each of UTMB’s mission areas – education, clinical service, research, and community service based on the E-Mail Age scenario during the first quarter of 2000. Multiple groups comprised of over one hundred faculty, administrators, staff and external constituents reviewed and refined the mission implications and developed comprehensive strategies aimed at positioning the institution to thrive in the E-Mail Age. In October 2000 a strategy task force prioritized the strategies, compiled a set of guideposts that would serve to demonstrate the reality of the scenario, and developed a five-theme implementation approach.

The first decade of the millennium will be heavily influenced by technology, and driven by consumerism.  Consumers will become actively involved in making choices about services and will be able, through technology, to access the services they want with little regard to geographic limitations.  Providers must be able to offer quality and represent excellence to thrive in this “virtual” environment.  The functions of academic medical centers will be provided in this “virtual” environment.

Students, granting agencies, patients, and employers will demand high quality, value-laden services in a low-overhead, cost-effective manner.  The availability of ubiquitous complete access, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with privacy and security safeguards and high speed communication systems will pervade all aspects of our lives, from “virtual” commerce on a global scale to “virtual” healthcare.  This will foster a new form of competition providing a large variety of choices to the consumer.  The sophisticated patient, armed with information obtained from the World Wide Web, will “shop” for the best care at the best price.

Opportunities to market services will no longer be bound by geography.  Partnerships and consortia development will result in multi-disciplinary, proprietary-oriented research without boundaries, driven by societal interest.  Technical transfer of basic research to commercial markets will be commonplace.

The same principles will apply to teaching, which will take the form of “borderless” classrooms with “just-in-time” classes, designer courses and “virtual” degree programs.  The majority of patient care and teaching activities will be “virtual”, generally at consumers’ homes and at their convenience, health services must accommodate them.  Twenty-four hour comprehensive health care coverage, independent of location, will be routine.  The patient’s care provider will be available regardless of whether the patient is at home, work or traveling.  Primary care providers will need training and experience in areas such as occupational medicine, workman’s compensation, public health, travel medicine and knowledge of other cultures’ medical practices and pharmaceuticals.  Advances in robotics will allow for distance procedures and even distance surgery.