“Reasonably anticipated” describes an assessment of an outcome such that, generally, individuals with scientific expertise relevant to the research in question would expect this outcome to occur with a non-trivial likelihood. It does not require high confidence that the outcome will definitely occur but excludes experiments in which experts would anticipate the outcome to be technically possible, but highly unlikely.
“Generally, individuals with scientific expertise relevant to the research in question”: Relevant scientific expertise is required to anticipate the potential and plausible results of an experiment. Scientists may have differing views on possible and likely outcomes of any particular experiment, so the general assessment of multiple individuals is likely to be more robust than the views of any single individual. The PI is not required to seek assessment from a group of individuals, but rather to use the PI’s individual expertise and experience to consider the range of assessments that individuals with relevant scientific expertise would likely make.
“Expect this outcome to occur”: While it is impossible to know for certain the result of any experiment in advance, experiments are typically conducted to test specific hypotheses. These hypotheses constitute expectations about the possible results of an experiment, and should be included in the range of results that are “reasonably anticipated” may occur. The PI may consider, if applicable, leveraging existing literature that may have analogous experimental design and/or similar pathogens or toxins to determine potential expectations.
“Non-trivial likelihood”: A “reasonably anticipated” outcome is not necessarily the most likely outcome, nor is it necessarily an outcome with greater than 50% likelihood. Rather, it is an outcome that has a reasonable, non-negligible chance of occurring. For example, consider an experiment on pandemic influenza that experts anticipate is most likely to result in a loss of function, but that experts also believe could possibly increase transmissibility of the pathogen. An indication of generating a pandemic influenza virus with enhanced transmissibility represents a risk of high consequence to the public if that agent were to be accidentally released. Such a study should therefore undergo Category 2 oversight because, despite the fact that generating a PEPP is not the likeliest outcome, it has a non-trivial likelihood of resulting in a PEPP.
“Excludes experiments in which an expert would anticipate the outcome to be technically possible, but highly unlikely”: For many
experiments it may be possible to imagine a scenario, however unlikely, in which a genetic mutation surprisingly results in an increase in virulence or transmissibility against all reasonable expectations and prior evidence. The purpose of the Policy is to prioritize oversight for experiments that may pose the greatest risks. Technically plausible outcomes with very low likelihoods, as assessed based on pre-existing evidence, are not subject to Category 2 oversight. As per the Policy, if such a result unexpectedly arises during the conduct of research, the study should be halted, immediately be flagged for the IRE and funding entity, and be subject to Category 2 assessment and risk mitigation.